On a Blackjack table There are two reactions to a dealer's bust: some are happy, while those who have already busted themselves are annoyed.
Last checked and updated: February 2026 by Sara Devegano
What is "Bust"?
Bust" is the term used to describe exceeding the maximum score 21.
Both players and dealers can "bust" when they draw a card and exceed the maximum score of 21. With a bust you can no longer win.
If you have overbought as a player, you will lose your Insertand your role in the round is over. If you stick with a sum, you must hope that it is higher than the dealer's sum in order to win.
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And if the dealer overbought? If you are still in the game, you win no matter what your total is.
Some say, Blackjack is a pure Gamblingbecause everything depends on the leaf. Well, that's partly true. However, the whole truth is that there is a blackjack strategy that you can use and that will improve your Odds will improve considerably.
Es hängt alles davon ab, wie hoch die Probability ist, dass der Dealer aussteigt. Wenn sie hoch sind, können Sie auf fast alles setzen und gewinnen. Wenn sie niedrig sind, sollten Sie vielleicht eine weitere Karte nehmen und selbst näher an die 21 herankommen.
But what is the probability that the dealer will go bust? We are glad you asked!
Blackjack Dealer Bust Odds
When you sit down in a casino to play blackjack play, hopefully with a refreshing drink in hand, or if you're playing online at a cool site like TwinSpires Casino, there's one thing you should look out for above all else.
What is the dealer's open card?
With this information, you can make a more informed decision about how to play your hand. It's about the probability that the next card you or the dealer receives will have a value of 10, since 10s, jacks, queens and kings all have this value.
If you assume that the dealer's face-down card is more likely to be a 10, you can better understand the probability of going broke.
Let's say his upcard is a 6. Now let's say his face-down card is a 10, which gives him 16. He is forced to take another card, which will probably put him over 21. In this case, you can afford to stop at any hand above 11 (at 11 or below, you always take another card, since you can't overbid).
But let's assume his upcard is a 10 or a Ace - then you must assume that his second card is a 10 or a nine, which will give him a high sum without busting. In this scenario you'll have to try to get a high score.
Blackjack Dealer Bust Percentages
You want it in black and white? Here are the chances that the dealer with the following open Cards „busts“:
- 2 - 35.30%
- 3 - 37.56%
- 4 - 40.28%
- 5 - 42.89%
- 6 - 42.08%
- 7 - 25.99%
- 8 - 23.86%
- 9 - 23.34%
- 10,J,Q,K - 21,43%
- A - 11.65%
As you can see, the worst upcard for the dealer is the five, with a 42.891TP3 chance of going bust, quickly followed by the six and the four. But the dealer's chances increase slightly below the four and up to the ace, where he has only an 11.65% chance of failing.
With this information, you can make informed decisions about whether to continue playing in a round and take more cards, whether to stop at just about anything, or whether to split and doubleto bring more money to the table when the percentages are in your favor and you have a strong hand yourself.
Bust in blackjack strategy
The basic blackjack strategy is based on the mathematics of the game. It has been tested and refined through computer simulations. If it is followed correctly, it reduces the House advantage to a minimum, which is usually around half a percent.
If you use the Blackjack strategy you decide whether to fold, stand or double based on your two cards and the dealer's face up card. Many players wonder what percentage of times the dealer "busts" based on his open card. (Whenever your hand or the dealer's hand exceeds the sum of 21, it is called a bust).
The dealer will go "Bust" more often with certain open cards than with others. Take a look at the following Table. You will see that the worst cards for the dealer are the 5 and the 6, closely followed by the 4. If the dealer shows a 5 or a 6, there is a 42 percent chance that he will bust, and a 40 percent chance if he shows a 4. For this reason, you double more often when the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6.
The cards least likely to be busted by the dealer are Ace, 10 and 9. If the dealer shows one of these cards, he has another advantage as the player has to act first. According to the basic strategy, a player with a hand of less than 17 must hit when the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9, 10 or an Ace. If the player "busts", he loses the hand even if the dealer also "busts". So the percentage of cases when the house wins is higher than the percentage of "busts" given in the table.
Play correctly
You will earn more money if the dealer shows a card that will allow you to double, but you will need to use the Rules follow the basic strategy. Many beginners double down with a hand of 7 or 8 against a dealer who shows an open card of 5 or 6. This is not correct, and even though the dealer is "bust" 42 percent of the time, you will lose more money if you do not play according to the basic strategy.
Knowing the dealer bust percentage is useful information, but it should only be used to confirm the decisions you make when playing basic strategy. If you are not sure how to play, you should memorize the basic strategy table or bring one with you to the table. This way you will play blackjack with the lowest possible house edge.
