What is the probability of winning at blackjack?

Blackjack probability win

You're probably asking yourself: What are the odds of winning at Blackjack? win?

The amount of probability of winning at blackjack depends on how you play. If you do it with the right blackjack Plays strategy and count cards you have an advantage as a player and the probability of winning increases. If you go purely by feel or make mistakes with the Strategythe probability of winning at blackjack drops dramatically. Then blackjack is really just a pure game of chance with similarly bad Odds as in the slot machine game.

PROBABILITY OF WINNING IN GAMBLING IN GENERAL

Every game for money has special Rules, which ensure that the provider has an advantage over the player.

To clarify this, I will first explain the winning probabilities using the simple example of roulette, because there are no courses of action that influence the odds ratio or differences between the skill levels of the players.

In roulette, this is 0 as the 37th number, which is matched by a win of 36 times.

Thus the Roulette win probability approximately 48.64%if you bet on red or black. There are 18 red and 18 black numbers. That means you win 18 times and lose 19 times. So out of 100 games you win 48.64 times a euro and lose 51.36 times a euro. That's not so bad, is it?

A basketball team that wins 48.64% of its games would currently be seventh in the standings out of 15 teams in the NBA Eastern Conference. So not even on track for the playoffs. Unfortunately, that's not good enough at the casino.

Because a win probability of 48.6% results in a average loss of 2.72 euros per 100 euros wagered. This 2.72% is the house edge of the casino. No matter how a single spin turns out. In the long run, the casino will make a lot of profit with it.

You cannot circumvent this house advantage of the casino by any strategy in the world. So short term wins are pure chance.

If you're lucky, you'll win even more often and you might have bet a lot and win more. Or you have a lucky streak and win often in a row or several days, weeks and months. All not improbable, but simply luck or bad luck.

In mathematics, luck and bad luck are called variance. But very few people are always lucky or unlucky.

There are deviations from this average in the positive and negative, but the longer you play, the more certain your loss approaches that exact 2,72%.

PROBABILITY OF WINNING AT BLACKJACK

Compared to roulette, as a player you have control over how likely you are to win at blackjack!

The probability of winning at blackjack depends on the following factors:

  1. Gameplay (Strategy)
  2. Casino rules
  3. Card Counting and Bet Variation

INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING WITH THE BLACKJACK STRATEGY

Fortunately, mathematicians discovered back in the 1960s that it was possible to increase the odds of winning at blackjack by following simple probability theory. From this, the Basic Strategy was born. This best possible Blackjack strategy is presented in a simple table form. As a player, you can see at a glance what you should do in every situation at the blackjack table in order to keep the house advantage of the casino as low as possible and thus increase your own chances of winning.

If you as a player adhere to the specifications of the Blackjack tableyou can lower the house edge of the casino to about 0.5%. This means that you lose only 50 cents per 100 euros bet. In comparison: In roulette we lose 2.72 euros per 100 euros. So five times as much! Who wouldn't rather play Blackjack?

The probability of winning at Blackjack is five times higher than at Roulette!

However, very few players play absolutely correctly according to the blackjack strategy decisions. This is due to the following reasons:

  1. UNKNOWLEDGMENT: People don't even know that you can increase the probability of winning.
  2. COMPLEXITY: It is difficult to memorize all the decisions and apply them under pressure in the casino.
  3. STUPIDITY: Many believe that it does no good because they still 51,36% lose all hands and do not automatically win every hand.

So the minority of all blackjack players manage to stick exactly to the blackjack strategy and thus increase the probability of winning to about 49.5%.

Everyone else who doesn't make their decisions based on the blackjack table only wins about 45% of all rounds and consequently loses a lot more.

If you play Blackjack by gut feeling and bet one euro 45 times, you will win 45 euros in 100 hands. In the remaining 55 hands, you lose 55 euros.

The bottom line is 45 - 55 = -10 euro loss, which corresponds to a loss of 10%.

So, as a pure gambler, you have a higher probability of winning at roulette and even at some slot machines than at blackjack.

However, if you want to make the effort and play blackjack correctly, practice the blackjack table decisions until you can execute them flawlessly without thinking.

INFLUENCE OF THE RULES ON THE PROBABILITY OF PROFIT

What beginners don't know:

Blackjack rules may differ depending on the casino.

The game rules offered can even vary from one table to another within a casino. In Vegas, this is completely normal. There are the "tourist traps" and the pro tables with higher stakes.

If you want to play blackjack with little money, you get bad rules, because otherwise it is not worthwhile for the expensive casino on the Las Vegas Strip to offer such a cheap table at all.

From a bet of 25 US dollars per round, you also get on the Las Vegas Strip reasonably good blackjack rules. Away from the Strip or in other places, the casinos also offer good blackjack rules for less bet. In the so-called "casinos of the locals" the minimum bet is usually 5 dollars.

Also in other countries like the Czech Republic or on some Caribbean islands you can find very good Blackjack rules.

With the best possible rules, the casino's house edge is even less than the 0.5%, which makes a very big financial difference for blackjack professionals and anyone who plays many hours of blackjack.

What are good blackjack rules?

You can find the good blackjack rules on the corresponding rules page. Here I'll give you a brief overview of the rules that have a big impact on how likely you are to win at blackjack.

  • Blackjack Playout 3:2 (never 6:5)
  • The dealer stops at a soft17 instead of drawing
  • Doubling up allowed on any hand (including soft hands with aces)
  • Doubling allowed after sharing
  • Split up to four hands - even with aces
  • Surrender is allowed

While most rules are learned as you play, the payout ratio for blackjack is printed on the table or on a sign next to the dealer. If you don't know what the payout ratio is, just ask the dealer. You should NEVER play here if the payout ratio is only 6:5. This increases the house edge of the casino to more than 2% even with optimal blackjack strategy. That means it makes more sense to play roulette.

INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WINNING WITH CARD COUNTING

If you can count cards, you can tell when you have an advantage in blackjack. In these situations with increased probability of winning, blackjack professionals bet more money. Thus, they compensate for the disadvantage.

Simply put, knowing when the probability of winning is higher allows you to bet more and win more in the long run.

Example:

A card counter also has only a 50% chance of winning. However, he knows his chances exactly because he counts cards. Since the probability of winning changes with each card, the card counter knows when he has a higher chance of winning.

Suppose the card counter bets 2 euros in 50% of the cases and wins. Then he has bet 2 euros 50 times and won 100 euros.

In the remaining 50 cases, he only bet 1 euro and thus lost 50 euros. He is left with a profit of 50 euros.

This example is greatly exaggerated and is intended to explain the principle simply.

Card counting can give a player a 1-2% advantage.

So for every 100 euros you bet, you win 1 euro.

Now it's just a matter of playing as many hands as possible with as high stakes as possible.

Comparison of profits

We're looking at three blackjack players:

  1. Hobby gambler with a chance to win 45%
  2. Strategy player with a chance of winning 49.5%
  3. Blackjack pro with a chance of winning 51%.

The differences don't look big. And you'll need a few minutes or even hours at a blackjack table to tell who's a pro and who's an amateur by the way they play and their winnings.

Over the course of a year, the hobby gambler, the strategy player and the card counter always bet 10 euros per hand.

In one hour, about 100 hands are played, so 1,000 euros bet. (Realistic are rather 20 - 50, but because of the simpler calculation we take 100).

They both play 1000 hours of blackjack a year, which gives them a Total stake of 1 million euros!

The hobby gambler has won 450,000 euros with his disadvantage and lost 550,000 euros. The bottom line is that he lost a whole 100,000 euros!

The strategy player wins 495,000 euros and loses 505,000 euros. A loss of 5,000 euros.

The blackjack pro makes a total profit of 20,000 euros with 510,000 euros profit and 490,000 euros loss.

So the best way to get started is to learn the blackjack rules, strategy and card counting.

Then hopefully you can answer the question positively: What is the probability of winning at blackjack?

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