What is the probability of winning at blackjack?
What is the probability of winning at blackjack?

What is the probability of winning at blackjack?

You're probably wondering: What is the probability of winning at blackjack winThe amount of probability to win in blackjack depends on how you play.

If you do it with the right blackjack Plays strategy and count cards If you know how to play, you have an advantage as a player and the probability of winning increases. If you go purely by feel or make mistakes in strategy, the probability of winning at blackjack decreases dramatically. Then blackjack is really just a pure Gambling with similarly poor Odds as in the slot machine game.

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Which online casino is reputable?

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Every game for money has special rules that ensure that the provider has an advantage over the player.

To illustrate this, I will first explain the probabilities of winning using the simple example of Roulettebecause there are no options that influence the odds ratio or differences between the players' skills.

In roulette, this is 0 as the 37th number, which is matched by a win of 36 times.

Thus the Roulette win probability approximately 48.64%if you bet on red or black. There are 18 red and 18 black numbers. That means you win 18 times and lose 19 times. So out of 100 games you win 48.64 times a euro and lose 51.36 times a euro. That's not so bad, is it?

A basketball team that wins 48.64% of its games would currently be seventh in the standings out of 15 teams in the NBA Eastern Conference. So not even on track for the playoffs. Unfortunately, that's not good enough at the casino.

Because a win probability of 48.6% results in a average loss of 2.72 euros per 100 euros Insert. These 2,72% are the House edge of the casino. No matter how a single spin turns out. In the long run, the casino will make a lot of profit.

You cannot circumvent this house advantage of the casino by any strategy in the world. So short term wins are pure chance.

If you're lucky, you'll win even more often and you might have bet a lot and win more. Or you have a lucky streak and win often in a row or several days, weeks and months. All not improbable, but simply luck or bad luck.

In mathematics, luck and bad luck are called variance. But very few people are always lucky or unlucky.

There are deviations from this average in the positive and negative, but the longer you play, the more certain your loss approaches that exact 2,72%.


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Compared to roulette, as a player you have control over how likely you are to win at blackjack!

The probability of winning at blackjack depends on the following factors:

  1. Gameplay (Strategy)
  2. Casino rules
  3. Card Counting and Bet Variation


Fortunately, mathematicians discovered back in the 1960s that it is possible to increase the chances of winning at blackjack by using simple probability calculations. This gave rise to the Basic Strategy. This best possible blackjack strategy is presented in a simple table. As a player, you can see at a glance what you can do best in every situation. Blackjack table to keep the casino's house edge as low as possible and thus increase your own chances of winning.

If you as a player adhere to the specifications of the Blackjack tableyou can reduce the house edge of the casino to approx. 0.5%. This means that you only lose 50 cents for every 100 euros you bet. In comparison: In roulette, we lose 2.72 euros per 100 euros. So five times as much! Who wouldn't prefer Play blackjack?

The probability of winning at Blackjack is five times higher than at Roulette!

However, very few players play absolutely correctly according to the blackjack strategy decisions. This is due to the following reasons:

  1. UNKNOWLEDGMENT: People don't even know that you can increase the probability of winning.
  2. COMPLEXITY: It is difficult to memorize all the decisions and apply them under pressure in the casino.
  3. STUPIDITY: Many believe that it does no good because they still 51,36% lose all hands and do not automatically win every hand.

So the minority of all blackjack players manage to stick exactly to the blackjack strategy and thus increase the probability of winning to about 49.5%.

Everyone else who doesn't make their decisions based on the blackjack table only wins about 45% of all rounds and consequently loses a lot more.

If you play Blackjack by gut feeling and bet one euro 45 times, you will win 45 euros in 100 hands. In the remaining 55 hands, you lose 55 euros.

The bottom line is 45 - 55 = -10 euro loss, which corresponds to a loss of 10%.

So, as a pure gambler, you have a higher probability of winning at roulette and even at some slot machines than at blackjack.

However, if you want to make the effort and play blackjack correctly, practice the blackjack table decisions until you can execute them flawlessly without thinking.


What beginners don't know:

Blackjack rules may differ depending on the casino.

The game rules offered can even vary from one table to another within a casino. This is completely normal in Vegas. There are the "tourist traps" and the professional tables with higher stakes.

If you want to play blackjack with little money, you get bad rules, because otherwise it is not worthwhile for the expensive casino on the Las Vegas Strip to offer such a cheap table at all.

From a stake of 25 US dollars per round, you can also get reasonably good blackjack rules on the Las Vegas Strip. Away from the Strip or in other places, casinos also offer good blackjack rules for less. In the so-called "locals' casinos", the minimum bet is usually 5 dollars.

Also in other countries like the Czech Republic or on some Caribbean islands you can find very good Blackjack rules.

With the best possible rules, the casino's house edge is even less than the 0.5%, which makes a very big financial difference for blackjack professionals and anyone who plays many hours of blackjack.

What are good blackjack rules?

You can find the good blackjack rules on the corresponding rules page. Here I'll give you a brief overview of the rules that have a big impact on how likely you are to win at blackjack.

  • Blackjack Playout 3:2 (never 6:5)
  • The dealer stops at a soft17 instead of drawing
  • Double allowed with any hand (also with the soft hands with Assen)
  • Doubling allowed after sharing
  • Split up to four hands - even with aces
  • Surrender is allowed

While most rules are learned as you play, the payout ratio for blackjack is printed on the table or on a sign next to the dealer. If you don't know what the payout ratio is, just ask the dealer. You should NEVER play here if the payout ratio is only 6:5. This increases the house edge of the casino to more than 2% even with optimal blackjack strategy. That means it makes more sense to play roulette.


If you can count cards, you can tell when you have an advantage in blackjack. In these situations with increased probability of winning, blackjack professionals bet more money. Thus, they compensate for the disadvantage.

Simply put, knowing when the probability of winning is higher allows you to bet more and win more in the long run.


A card counter also only has a 501TP3 chance of winning. However, he knows his chances exactly because he Cards counts. As the probability of winning changes with each card, the card counter knows when it has a better chance of winning.

Suppose the card counter bets 2 euros in 50% of the cases and wins. Then he has bet 2 euros 50 times and won 100 euros.

In the remaining 50 cases, he only bet 1 euro and thus lost 50 euros. He is left with a profit of 50 euros.

This example is greatly exaggerated and is intended to explain the principle simply.

Card counting can give a player a 1-2% advantage.

So for every 100 euros you bet, you win 1 euro.

Now it's just a matter of playing as many hands as possible with as high stakes as possible.

Comparison of profits

We're looking at three blackjack players:

  1. Hobby gambler with a chance to win 45%
  2. Strategy player with a chance of winning 49.5%
  3. Blackjack pro with a chance of winning 51%.

The differences don't look big. And you'll need a few minutes or even hours at a blackjack table to tell who's a pro and who's an amateur by the way they play and their winnings.

Over the course of a year, the hobby gambler, the strategy player and the card counter always bet 10 euros per hand.

In one hour, about 100 hands are played, so 1,000 euros bet. (Realistic are rather 20 - 50, but because of the simpler calculation we take 100).

They both play 1000 hours of blackjack a year, which gives them a Total stake of 1 million euros!

The hobby gambler has won 450,000 euros with his disadvantage and lost 550,000 euros. The bottom line is that he lost a whole 100,000 euros!

The strategy player wins 495,000 euros and loses 505,000 euros. A loss of 5,000 euros.

The blackjack pro makes a total profit of 20,000 euros with 510,000 euros profit and 490,000 euros loss.

So get started and learn the blackjack rules, strategy and card counting.

Then hopefully you can answer the question positively: What is the probability of winning at blackjack?