On a Blackjack table There are two reactions to a dealer's bust: some are happy, while those who have already busted themselves are annoyed.
What is "Bust"?
Bust" refers to exceeding the maximum number of points 21.
Both players and dealers can "bust" if they draw a card and thus exceed the maximum number of points of 21. With a bust you can no longer win.
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If you have overbought as a player, you will lose your Insertand your role in the round is over. If you stick with a sum, you must hope that it is higher than the dealer's sum in order to win.
And if the dealer overbought? If you are still in the game, you win, no matter what your total is.
Some say, Blackjack is a pure Gamblingbecause everything depends on the leaf. Well, that's partly true. However, the whole truth is that there is a blackjack strategy that you can use that will maximise your chances of winning. Odds will improve considerably.
It all depends on how high the probability is that the dealer will fold. If they are high, you can bet on almost anything and win. If they are low, you might want to take another card and get closer to 21 yourself.
But how likely is the dealer to go bust? We are glad you asked!
Blackjack Dealer Bust Odds
When you sit down in a casino to play blackjack, hopefully with a refreshing drink in your hand, or when you play online at a cool site like TwinSpires Casino, you should pay attention to one thing above all.
What is the dealer's open card?
With this information you can make a more informed decision about how to play your hand. It is about the probability that the next card you or the dealer receives will have a value of 10, as 10s, jacks, queens and kings all have this value.
If you assume that the dealer's face-down card is more likely to be a 10, you can better understand how likely he is to go for broke.
Let's say his upcard is a 6. Now let's say his face-down card is a 10, which gives him 16. He is forced to take another card, which will probably take him over 21. In this case you can afford to stop at any hand above 11 (at 11 or below you always take another card as you cannot overbid).
But let's assume his upcard is a 10 or a Ace - then you must assume that his second card is a 10 or a nine, which will give him a high total without him busting. In this scenario you have to try to get a high score.
Blackjack Dealer Bust Percentages
You want it in black and white? Here are the odds that the dealer will bust with the following cards face up:
- 2 - 35.30%
- 3 - 37.56%
- 4 - 40.28%
- 5 - 42.89%
- 6 - 42.08%
- 7 - 25.99%
- 8 - 23.86%
- 9 - 23.34%
- 10,J,Q,K - 21,43%
- A - 11.65%
As you can see, the worst upcard for the dealer is the five, with a 42.891TP3 chance of going bust, quickly followed by the six and the four. But the dealer's chances increase slightly below the four and up to the ace, where he has only an 11.65% chance of failing.
With this information, you can make informed decisions about whether to continue playing in a round and take more cards, whether to stop at just about anything, or whether to split and doubleto bring more money to the table when the percentages are in your favour and you have a strong hand yourself.
Bust in Blackjack Strategy
The basic blackjack strategy is based on the mathematics of the game. It has been tested and refined through computer simulations. If it is followed correctly, it reduces the House advantage to a minimum, which is usually around half a per cent.
If you use the Blackjack strategy you decide whether to fold, stand or double based on your two cards and the dealer's face-up card. Many players wonder what percentage of times the dealer busts based on his face-up card. (Whenever your hand or the dealer's hand exceeds 21, it is called a bust).
The dealer will go bust more often on certain face-up cards than on others. Take a look at the following Table. You will see that the worst cards for the dealer are the 5 and the 6, closely followed by the 4. If the dealer shows a 5 or a 6, there is a 42 per cent chance that he will bust, and a 40 per cent chance if he shows a 4. For this reason, you double more often when the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6.
The cards with the lowest probability of the dealer busting are Ace, 10 and 9. If the dealer shows one of these cards, he has a further advantage, as the player must act first. According to the basic strategy, a player with a hand of less than 17 must hit if the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9, 10 or an ace. If the player busts, he loses the hand, even if the dealer also busts. The percentage of cases in which the house wins is therefore higher than the percentage of busts shown in the table.
Play correctly
You will earn more money if the dealer shows a card that allows you to double, but you must take the Rules follow the basic strategy. Many beginners double down with a hand of 7 or 8 against a dealer showing an open card of 5 or 6. This is not correct, and even if the dealer is bust 42 per cent of the time, you will lose more money if you do not play according to basic strategy.
Knowing the dealer bust percentage is useful information, but it should only be used to confirm the decisions you make when playing basic strategy. If you are not sure how to play, you should memorise the basic strategy table or bring one with you to the table. This way you play blackjack with the lowest possible house advantage.
